Friday, December 5, 2008

Ghana 2008 Elections: The Expected Outcome?

If everything goes according to the plans of the Electoral Commission of Ghana, as expected, the whole world will be celebrating with all peace-loving Ghanaians another milestone in our democratic system by Wednesday, 10 December 2008.

With the heightened preparedness of the security apparatchik , the appeal by most of the political parties to their supporters to conduct themselves honourably coupled with the acute awareness of most Ghanaians of the need to the keep the peace, I really see no reason for alarm bells as far as the legitimacy and fairness of the 7 December elections is concerned.

On the scale of probabilities, I perceive that the ALPHA SCENARIO in my earlier blogpost is the most plausible outcome after the elections albeit with some variations because of the on-going global economic recession. This notwithstanding my qualms about the absence of a transformational leader in the midst of the contenders for the post of CEO of Ghana Inc. as posted here.


While it is statistically possible to compute the expected outcome of any future event at any time before the actual event itself, the situation of predicting the outcome of the presidential election in Ghana is severely compromised by the dearth of reliable data on the ground.Another problem has been the subjective manner in which some of the polling of the 2008 elections has been carried out. Read this, this and this and also this.


Whispers from the ground reaching my wide-opened ears are( Caution: this has nothing to do with my personal preference ) that the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will be given the nod by Ghanaians to rule after the elections.
Whilst it is not yet conclusive whether there will be a re-run, it is believed by guys I talk to here that, Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP have a few percentage points ahead of Prof. Atta Mills and NDC in the final home stretch of the political game. True/False? Anyhow, that is what I am hearing!
Wishing Ghanaians, home and away, and the friends of Ghana a free, fair, peaceful and memorable elections on 7 December 2008!

12 comments:

Abena said...

Hi Posekyere, the NPP being ahead may be a fair assessment but the NDC is really picking up momentum with the "Yeresesemu" message borrowed from the CPP borrowed from Obama.
For me it is hard to say who is ahead between these 2 parties. They are literally neck and neck. The NPP is battling the burden of incumbency and trying to convince Ghanaians that things are much better now while the NDC is battling the Rawlings legacy while trying to convince Ghanaians that things were better back in NDC times. I think the CPP will play a major role in collecting those "swing votes" which may have gone to the NPP in the past. Thus, the NDC could easily take this one.

Anyway, I'm heading into the hinterlands tommorrow to cast my vote and "contribute my quota" to add a popular Ghanaism!

posekyere said...

Hi Abena,

Reading your comments, I immediately felt the air of uncertainty at this moment of decision.
Gee whiz! The level of adrinalin must be pretty high in Ogyakrom right now!
Wish I could be there to vote.
Let's pray that peace will prevail at the end of the elections.

novisi said...

hi there! nice one!

I am not sure of Ghana electoral polls...they only leave you wondering...

anyhow...my own expectation is that Ghanaians would vote for CHANGE! we must break from the tokenism fashioned as leadership...

I don't see this elections as a contest as in football where one team wins and it is just alright...it goes beyond that, it is about letting our political leaders know that our needs come first before their comforts!

the records of the npp are nothing to write home about...we must break from them...!

as for the Obama link, well we have to live with the fact that any call for change will be linked to him (even though human beings have been calling and effecting change from deep into time)...

but truly we need change if even the incumbent party wins...we must not tolerate another president who will use our money to buy himself an award!


so my prayer and hope is that Ghanaians VOTE FOR AND DEMAND CHANGE!

posekyere said...

Novisi,

Very forceful, impassioned and no-nonsense articulation of your position on the 2008 elections.
My major concern is that we move on immediately after the elections with the developmental agenda of the state.

Adaeze said...

nice post :-) I need to get more enlightened on Ghana politics and your posts are a good way to do that - Unfortunately I haven't and do not have enough time these days. I'll catch up though! Either way I hope for the best for Ghana and I agree with you that it's important to move on to the developmental agenda. Lets see what happens.

posekyere said...

Bless you, Adaeze!

I sincerely hope that all ends up well for the good of Ghana and her children.
Africa has wallowed in the pits for far too long and it is time we exchanged our mediocre existence for one of pregress, dignity and excellence.
I don't want to be amongst those who think that the latter is too optimistic for Africa.
If we fail to set higher standards for ourselves, who for goodness sake will do so for us? My candid opinion is that we really can attain our aspirations, goals and dreams if we collectively put our hearts and minds into achieving greatness for ourselves.
A excellent election outcome is a small but important step in the right direction.
I really believe it!

Adaeze said...

I couldn't have said it better myself. I love positive people like yourself and people like you is exactly what the beautiful continent of Africa needs :-) I agree with you completely, things can never get better unless people Do set higher standards for themselves. It's not a bad thing to have big and beautiful dreams, without them they can't come true. I hope you'll write another post about the outcome, so I can read :-)

Nana Yaw Asiedu said...

We're gaining on 48 hours now, Posekyere, and it's getting kind of hectic for both big parties. Interesting times!

posekyere said...

Thanks again Adaeze.
Whilst we keep our fingers crossed for the entire results, we need to make it clear to those elected that we are not going to tolerate any mediocrity ever again and that they should starting rolling their sleeves in readiness to serve Ghana and Ghanaians in accordance with the mandate entrusted to them.

How are you doing in Nigeria?

posekyere said...

Gee whiz, Nana Yaw!

The tension must be as palpable as it can get, I believe.
Anyway the EC should not be pressured to release results that they cannot authenticate. At a time like this, they should make sure the fingures are checked and re-checked before they release the final presidential result.
That is one sure way to ensure the reliability of the result and also to factually counter the heat that will surely be unleashed by the losing party.

Abena said...

Hey Posekyere, I'm back from casting my vote in the hinterlands and I'm proud to say that it did make a difference in the parliamentary election! In hindsight I stand by my initial NPP/NDC comments but I admit I was sooo wrong about the CPP! Turns out it may have been pure media hype after all. I must say I have to hand it to the NDC for really taking the Central region by storm. With a run-off in sight I think we should start looking forward to an NDC administration with Mr. JJ Rawlings oops sorry I mean Professor Johns Evans Atta-Mills at the helm. God Bless Ghana:)

posekyere said...

Hi Ohemaa Abena!

Good to hear that you voted.
Looking at the the figures of Ghanaweb, 206 constituencies have so far been finalised. With a substantial tallies outstanding from the Eastern Region, Brong Ahafo Region and a few from the Western Region, I still see a possibility of Nana Akuffo Addo keeping a winnable edge.

Those already booming from the rooftops should cool down, because it ain't over until it is over.