Some time before the end of this year, somewhere on the mother continent, the billionth African will be born.
It is remarkable in itself that the population of Africa has breached the critical 1 000 000 000 mark. In spite of the chillingly brutal history of slavery, colonialism, racism and the other atrocities of mass destruction that have been unleashed upon Africans for centuries, we have not only survived in our own continent but continue to show extraordinary resilience even in the most challenging and culturally inhospitable regions of the globe.
The dynamics of Africa’s population growth suggest that her portion of the global population will continue to increase going forward.
It is estimated that by 2050, the population of Africa would have surpassed those of India and China.
Such an expectation is bound to present a number of interesting scenarios.
First scenario1) Economic growth across the continent continues to gain momentum. The quality of infrastructure, education, health care and other leading indicators continue to improve across many parts of the continent. Democracy, political stability and the rule of law are entrenched. Africa’s share of global trade and investments begin to accelerate lifting millions of Africans out of poverty. Africa at peace with itself and with the global village. A sustainable trajectory of prosperity is established.
The growing population and prosperity leads to a formidable African market.
More FDIs and businesses set up in Africa leading to more prosperity across Africa.
Africa finally at her best.
Second scenario2) Majority of African countries keeps to the status quo. The rate of economic growth and development across the continent is virtually at par with the rate of growth of the population leading to stagnation in human development and standard of living. Education and health care and other social services are at best mediocre for the growing population. A cycle of under-performance becomes the order of the day.
Africa barely surviving.
Third scenario
3) Economic and political mismanagement worsens across Africa. Economic growth and development falls drastically below the rate of growth of the population. Poverty, unemployment, instability and conflicts worsen. Infrastructure, education, health care and other essential services in total disarray. Africa’s share of trade and investment declines further throwing millions of Africans into debilitating poverty. Unemployment, lack of essential skills, instability and conflicts worsen.
Capital flight, brain drain, unfavourable climatic pattern intensify worsening agriculture leading to dire economic and social situation in many places.
Africa on the ropes.
The way forwardLet African countries as a matter of urgency relax the unfriendly laws and regulations that hinder intra-African trade and investment and quicken integration within the various regional economic blocs. The fragmented markets as they pertain today will never on their own unlock the tremendous synergies available that could be realised in a market with a 1000 000 000 consumers.
May the birth of the billionth African bring a billion answers to Africa’s developmental challenges.
Long Live the African dream!
Long Live Africa!
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