Economics: 2009 Highlights & 2010 Forecasts

In every respect 2009 has been a real bitch!
I will not be surprised if, a few years from now, the number 2009 becomes synonymous with nastiness, catastrophe and bad omen. The superstitious bunch will do everything to avoid that number like a plaque. 2009 shall forever be remembered as the year the bottom fell out of the global economy setting an unprecedented chain reaction of business failures the like of which has not been seen in modern times.
All the vital socioeconomic indicators of the year have been abysmal.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that when the hard statistics of 2009 are finally computed and analysed, the extent of devastation in terms of cost and human capital will be substantial. Millions of workers, investors and entrepreneurs have already lost their livelihoods and, with it, the middle class lifestyle they have built over the years for themselves and their families.
2009, in a major positive way, will be benchmarked as the starting point of a new global economic order. So as the year screeches to an eventful end, it is hoped that the many victims of what has been the annus horribilis of the global village will find some reasons to expect a quick recovery of fortune.

The Global Economy 2010
With the death of the laissez faire free market franchise, the birth pangs of the evolving global economic consensus will continue to be felt in 2010 and beyond.
The emergence of the new global economic order and with it the shift of economic momentum to the East will continue to accelerate, breathing new life into the economies of the global South.
However, the economic prospects of many emerging economies and developing countries alike will continue to experience some form of constraints or even deterioration in the short to medium term as a result of diminished demand for their exports in the United States, Europe and Japan.
My expectation is that the present positive momentum will cause the tide of the global economy to rise significantly in 2010 and lead to a deepened optimism among consumers in the northern hemisphere and subsequently a rebound in global economic activity. Consumption in the East will pick up considerably.

Obama’s America in 2010
The resurgence of the global economy will not happen to the extent that it should until the economy of the United States is up and running. There are already tangible signs of an up-tick in economic activity. The most plausible scenario is that the new health care bill will pass and there will be a steady increase in employment coupled with some easing of the tough credit regime by financial institutions. These and other measures will unleash positive sentiments which will inevitably lead to increased consumption in 2010.
Having said that, 2010 will still be a pretty difficult year for the American economy in general. Barack Obama and his economic team would need the wisdom of the gods, the political acumen of Dwight D. Eisenhower and the economic wizardry of Franklin D. Roosevelt to get the economy booming again.

China, India and The East in 2010
China and India will continue to consolidate their emergence as the flywheel of global economic development in 2010. The role of the two countries in the economies of the developing world will gain momentum in 2010. You can count on their ferocious appetite for natural resources to boost commodity prices in the second half of 2010 as the momentum of global demand begins to pick up. China and India will once again grow at breakneck speeds.
And China will once again be at the forefront of investing in Africa’s infrastructure projects and in the acquisition of large chunks of her natural resources.
I foresee some simmering tension in the relationship between America and China as the weight of Chinese influence continues to grow in 2010 and beyond.

Africa’s Economy in 2010
The emerging tigers of Africa will keep on doing well.
A 5% continental growth average is the conservative forecast.
With the recent reforms in Africa's agricultural sector, the productivity and output of the sector is expected to increase in 2010.
Africa’s infrastructure development will continue to occupy the centre of economic planning and development. Chinese companies have proven themselves as reliable partners in the provision of basic infrastructure across the continent and will continue to get the bulk share of such projects in 2010.
The inexplicable dearth of big American and European non-oil investments into Africa is not expected to change in 2010. Little to no change is expected of the traditional and conservative we-will-come-if-you-do-what-we-tell-you approach by investors from the northern hemisphere towards Africa despite the unprecedented and growing profit margins Africa offers compared to other parts of the globe.
The rate of growth in trade between Africa and China is expected to grow faster in 2010 than in recent years with the maverick, China, expected to overtake the pace of US investments in the continent.
Sadly the overwhelming reliance on her trade with China will inevitably lead to economic security issues sooner or later for Africa. African countries will need to diversify not only their produce but also their international trade arrangements to offset the unhealthy dependence on big brother, China.
I predict that a great deal of political security issues will continue to bedevil the usual suspects in our corner of the world. The Guinean crisis, the Zimbabwean turmoil and the challenges in Niger and the DR Congo as well as the political quagmire in the Cote d’Ivoire will linger on throughout 2010.
Expect some erosion of economic development in these places by the end of next year.
Expect little change in the economy of Ghana in 2010.
Expect the Oil money to begin to trickle in by 2011.

Wishing you and yours a blessed twenty thanks!

Yuletidinal Blues

The saying " it does not rain, it pours" is a pretty apt description of the multifaceted avalanches that have conspired together to unleash cruel blows on some of us during this season of Christmas. Ouch!!
The global recession, the insane increase in the cost of utilities, the unannounced spike in insurance premiums and the hike in the costs of food and clothing are some of the elements of this brutal gang, robbing us big time of our right to make merry.
As usual, the malls are pulsating with enticingly hypnotic schemes and mouthwatering deals to get us to swipe the credit cards.
Those of us who, until now, have been keen celebrants of the commercial side of the season of merriment have had to learn quickly the art of avoiding the malls of Johannesburg like a plaque. They are not going to ride on my back, laughing, all the way to the bank!
I have an incredible stamina when it comes to holding unto my ever-tinning purse, but I can't say the same thing about you know who, so, in Kwaku Ananse's style, I am ever devising creative ways to avoid going to that house of pain.
As a properly-raised Ghanaian I am a believer in the noble art of avoiding unaffordable consumption! I am teaching some of my non-Ghanaian friends how to cut corners in order to provide, at least, a semblance of normality in their homes.
So not only are the usual suspects going to receive smaller scales of the boxes under the tree, the tree itself will be a much-cheaper Chinese version.
By the way, where is Santa Claus when you really need him? Or, perhaps, he also is cutting down on his expenses this time around. Hohoho!

Shock Therapy: Dealing With The Madness On The Roads

How unbelievably fast the days roll in and out these years!
I cannot bring myself to believe that we are already in December. The year is coming to an end and with that a new year is about to begin. Time indeed waits for no man!
The much-celebrated festive season, Christmas and New Year, is around the corner. However with the on-going global recession, not many people will be able to splash out on gifts for family and friends. Some folks are very happy that this Christmas will be a real one and not a commercial one.
Whatever way you look at it, it appears that Wall Street has become the Grinch who stole Christmas!
Talking about the festive season, it is also the time when many people take time off for holidays as well as visit family and friends all over the place.
Unfortunately with the increase in the number of vehicles on the roads, there is always a spike in road accidents, resulting in deaths and economic losses running into billions of rands every year during the festive season.
With the horrible road death statistics of South Africa as it stands, I was not the least surprised to hear a program on a talk show radio station focusing on whether or not shock therapy should be employed to curb the behaviour of drivers caught breaking the rules of the road.
By shock therapy, callers were advocating for pictures of the most horrendous accidents in all the gory details to be shown to offending drivers on top of the conventional severe fines.
I say, shock therapy is fine by me , provided it will lead to a lasting change in the behaviour of those who don't give a hoot for their own lives and that of other road users!