Economics: 2009 Highlights & 2010 Forecasts

In every respect 2009 has been a real bitch!
I will not be surprised if, a few years from now, the number 2009 becomes synonymous with nastiness, catastrophe and bad omen. The superstitious bunch will do everything to avoid that number like a plaque. 2009 shall forever be remembered as the year the bottom fell out of the global economy setting an unprecedented chain reaction of business failures the like of which has not been seen in modern times.
All the vital socioeconomic indicators of the year have been abysmal.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that when the hard statistics of 2009 are finally computed and analysed, the extent of devastation in terms of cost and human capital will be substantial. Millions of workers, investors and entrepreneurs have already lost their livelihoods and, with it, the middle class lifestyle they have built over the years for themselves and their families.
2009, in a major positive way, will be benchmarked as the starting point of a new global economic order. So as the year screeches to an eventful end, it is hoped that the many victims of what has been the annus horribilis of the global village will find some reasons to expect a quick recovery of fortune.

The Global Economy 2010
With the death of the laissez faire free market franchise, the birth pangs of the evolving global economic consensus will continue to be felt in 2010 and beyond.
The emergence of the new global economic order and with it the shift of economic momentum to the East will continue to accelerate, breathing new life into the economies of the global South.
However, the economic prospects of many emerging economies and developing countries alike will continue to experience some form of constraints or even deterioration in the short to medium term as a result of diminished demand for their exports in the United States, Europe and Japan.
My expectation is that the present positive momentum will cause the tide of the global economy to rise significantly in 2010 and lead to a deepened optimism among consumers in the northern hemisphere and subsequently a rebound in global economic activity. Consumption in the East will pick up considerably.

Obama’s America in 2010
The resurgence of the global economy will not happen to the extent that it should until the economy of the United States is up and running. There are already tangible signs of an up-tick in economic activity. The most plausible scenario is that the new health care bill will pass and there will be a steady increase in employment coupled with some easing of the tough credit regime by financial institutions. These and other measures will unleash positive sentiments which will inevitably lead to increased consumption in 2010.
Having said that, 2010 will still be a pretty difficult year for the American economy in general. Barack Obama and his economic team would need the wisdom of the gods, the political acumen of Dwight D. Eisenhower and the economic wizardry of Franklin D. Roosevelt to get the economy booming again.

China, India and The East in 2010
China and India will continue to consolidate their emergence as the flywheel of global economic development in 2010. The role of the two countries in the economies of the developing world will gain momentum in 2010. You can count on their ferocious appetite for natural resources to boost commodity prices in the second half of 2010 as the momentum of global demand begins to pick up. China and India will once again grow at breakneck speeds.
And China will once again be at the forefront of investing in Africa’s infrastructure projects and in the acquisition of large chunks of her natural resources.
I foresee some simmering tension in the relationship between America and China as the weight of Chinese influence continues to grow in 2010 and beyond.

Africa’s Economy in 2010
The emerging tigers of Africa will keep on doing well.
A 5% continental growth average is the conservative forecast.
With the recent reforms in Africa's agricultural sector, the productivity and output of the sector is expected to increase in 2010.
Africa’s infrastructure development will continue to occupy the centre of economic planning and development. Chinese companies have proven themselves as reliable partners in the provision of basic infrastructure across the continent and will continue to get the bulk share of such projects in 2010.
The inexplicable dearth of big American and European non-oil investments into Africa is not expected to change in 2010. Little to no change is expected of the traditional and conservative we-will-come-if-you-do-what-we-tell-you approach by investors from the northern hemisphere towards Africa despite the unprecedented and growing profit margins Africa offers compared to other parts of the globe.
The rate of growth in trade between Africa and China is expected to grow faster in 2010 than in recent years with the maverick, China, expected to overtake the pace of US investments in the continent.
Sadly the overwhelming reliance on her trade with China will inevitably lead to economic security issues sooner or later for Africa. African countries will need to diversify not only their produce but also their international trade arrangements to offset the unhealthy dependence on big brother, China.
I predict that a great deal of political security issues will continue to bedevil the usual suspects in our corner of the world. The Guinean crisis, the Zimbabwean turmoil and the challenges in Niger and the DR Congo as well as the political quagmire in the Cote d’Ivoire will linger on throughout 2010.
Expect some erosion of economic development in these places by the end of next year.
Expect little change in the economy of Ghana in 2010.
Expect the Oil money to begin to trickle in by 2011.

Wishing you and yours a blessed twenty thanks!

They Don't Make Them Like That Anymore

During my school years many moons ago, the wheels of boyish testosterone were driven primarily towards two overarching objects of affection: books and to a lesser extent beautiful girls. There was no joy greater than being the top in the class.
Boys, at least those in my circle , had a healthy ritual and an idealist composure when it came to showing love for a girl. My attraction to girls was first and foremost a romantic exploration driven by a boyish curiosity of the beautiful plumage of the maturing female body.
I, for one, was fascinated by the assemblage of fine parts and curves. Big time. But somehow my books always came first, probably because boys were schooled at home to have dreams and put a premium on education above all else.
No wonder, almost all my girl-friendships begun as study mates and blossomed into something a little bit more. We studied hard together and while at it did a bit of 'assets analyses'.
Boys and girls had big dreams. We were full of courage, strength and old-fashioned gutsiness.

Today's students are behaving like sex maniacs, romping all over the place like there is no tomorrow. Some as young as 12 years are going the full hog without any regard for books and their future. Students in high schools are sidestepping the essential years of sexual fascination and experimentation. Now they jump straight into the deeper end and many will end up sexually frustrated later on in life.
Cheap sex has triumphed over education in our schools and the fire of academic and intellectual pursuits has all but died. That may explain the recent phenomenon of 'sakawa' - a pursuit of cheap money, cheap sex and sadly cheap life.
Something, in the way children are raised these days, has gone awry and my thought is that the ambitions of the teenagers of the late eighties and nineties have been replaced with something much more instinctual, something libidinal, something cheap.
Somehow, they don't make them like that any more.
Are my own children going to play any different?
How I wish I knew the answer to that question!

The Essence of July

July. . .
The chiming tides of the semester of fast-paced permutations. . .
The end of the beginning and the beginning of the end. . . .
The offspring of contentment and dissonance. . . . .
The juxtaposition of introspection and retrospection. . . . . .
The interface of reflection and deflection. . . . . . .
The metamorphosis of contrasts. . . . . . . .
The midsection of goals. . . . . . . .

War At The Side Of Obama

"This above all: to thine own self be true,

And it must follow as the night the day,

Thou canst not then be false to any man"

-- William Shakespeare

They say a picture speaks better than a thousand words.
When a dignitary in the person of the president of the United States of America visits our shores, one would expect our foremost statesmen to display a great sense of dignity and decorum in his presence. Alas that can not be expected of His I-Have-Got-To-Hog-The-Limelight, Mr Rawlings. The recent visit of Mr Barack Obama to our shores has once again exposed the hyper grandeur and uber narcissistic attitude of this man in the body politic of Ghana. The first picture showing Mr & Mrs Rawlings on the far left of President Atta Mills. The man is not pleased with his position far away from President Barack Obama. So he decides to do, errh, . . . something about that .

Look at the second picture. Mr Rawlings comes and literally drags Mr Kuffour from the side of Mr Barack Obama so that he can bask in the glory of the moment. In Mr Kuffour's own words Mr Rawlings was not happy that he, Mr Kuffour, was trying to upstage him. The funniest part of the whole episode is the expression of president Atta Mills. Click on the picture and see him literally in titters over the behaviour of Mr Rawlings, trying very hard not to fall down laughing like a hyena! Finally Mr Kuffour, ever the gentleman, obliges. Mr Rawlings then comes to take the coveted place on the right hand of Mr Obama in the process leaving his wives miles away. Even the expression of Mrs Rawlings shows that she is not amused by the unacceptable behaviour of her husband on this occasion. I guess a word or two was exchanged between husband and wife over this incident at home.

See president Atta Mills trying to signal Mr Kuffour not to take the shameful behaviour to heart. Isn't it hilarious what Mr Rawlings will do to draw attention to his freaking self! Such petty squabbles are not expected from somebody has been our president for almost two decades. In my opinion, by this singular childish act Mr Rawlings has single-handedly demeaned himself in the face of Mr Barack Obama and those around him. Mr Rawlings has proven once again that Mr Kuffour is indeed a better man than he is.

It is hard, really hard, to put a good man down!

From Herdboy To President

Tomorrow, Saturday, 9 May 2009, on the lawns of the Union Building in Pretoria, Mr JACOB GEDLEYIHLEKISA ZUMA, popularly called Msholozi, will be inaugurated as the 4th post-apartheid President of the Republic of South Africa.
Whatever your personal opinions are of him, there is one thing you cannot take away from Jacob Zuma. He is a formidable survivor. A fighter of unimaginable stamina. The story of the man is simply unbelievable. Phenomenal.
Here is a man who begun life as a herd boy( a Shepherd- for those of you without southern African experience) in his ancestral homestead in Nkandla in rural northern KwaZulu- Natal.
His schooling was disrupted very early as a result of the apartheid regime and eventually he decided to leave school altogether to join the struggle against the regime after standard three/grade five.
Once he joined the ANC, he never looked back but concentrated all his efforts on learning as much as he could from the leaders in the movement. What he lacked in formal education, he learnt through association, political activism and a sheer determination.
For example whilst former president Thabo Mbeki is considered an aloof and elitist intellectual with poor inter personal skills, Jacob Zuma on the other hand is a charismatic leader with great people skills. He has a formidable personal touch with people. No wonder he is called the peoples president. `
His endearing nature has served him well over the years. Jacob Zuma rose through the ranks of the ANC to become the head of intelligence of the Umkhonto We Sizwe ( the military arm of the ANC).
After 1994, he became a member of the National Council of provinces(NCOP), the second House of the South African Parliament, representing KwaZulu-Natal and also a minister in the KZN provincial government responsible for economic affairs and tourism. It was through his negotiating skills that the violence between the ANC and the IFP was brought to an end in KZN.
In 1997 at the 50th Conference of the ANC at Mafikeng he was elected as the deputy president of the ANC. And in 1999 he become the deputy president of South Africa.
Tomorrow he takes the final step towards the highest office in the land having already been elected as the President of South Africa by the Parliament on 6th may 2009.
May the Good Lord be with him to provide the leadership required by South Africa in the next five years.

South Africa Votes II

The results of the national and provincial elections are rolling in fast and furious.
With a large chunk of of the results already in, the ANC is heading for a two-third majority in the national election. The party is also heading for victory in 8 of the 9 provinces.
The Western Cape is the only province expected to go to the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). Helen Zille, the leader of the DA is expected to become the Premier of that province.

Provisional Results
ANC ( 65% ) DA ( 16%) COPE ( 8%) IFP (2%)

Mr Jacob Zuma is expected to be elected as the next President of South Africa by the National Assembly early next month after the swearing in of the new members of parliament.
Everybody is now waiting anxiously to see the composition of the next ANC government.
Let us pray and hope that JACOB GEDLEYIHLEKISA ZUMA and his incoming administration will be able to take Mzansi to a much better future.

My Expectations and Predictions for 2009

2009 has begun in full force.
The recent high pitch political temperatures in Ghana and the US are expected to cool down appreciably after the inaugurations of the respective presidents and with that, hopefully, politics will be left in the hands of politicians, whilst the rest of us move on with our lives.
On the global scene, let us hope that with an inspirational president in the person of Barack Obama in the White House and the economic stimulus package working its way through the system, the global economy will begin to find its own positive rhythm after the recent terrible economic recession and the associated socio-economic upheavals.
We will certainly see a bit of light inside the tunnel by the last quarter of 2009.
The oil price will begin to rise gradually again as global consumption begins to pick up. The manufacturing and the resources sectors will once again become the drivers of global revival as the positive momentum makes its way through the global economy.

Back at home in Ghana, let us pray and hope that President John. Atta-Mills (JAM) will be allowed( you know by who?) to appoint a competent team to fulfil his vision for a better Ghana. My fear is that a certain clique within the NDC will do the utmost to hijack real power from him. Expect a bitter infighting for the plumb ministerial portfolios by the different blocs in the NDC.
Not much though is expected to happen in Ghana in 2009. The new government will need time and space to sync up with the economic realities on the ground as well as to apply their minds and work their way through the short- to medium- term economic policy jungle out there at a time of restricted investments, dwindling remittances and curtailed capital flows to emerging markets.. Any appreciable socio-economic change therefore can only take place from 2011 onwards; some months after the oil pumps are switched on and the stream of oil revenue begin to flow into the Ghanaian economy.

On a personal front, I need to explore some business initiatives to enlarge my tent.
The problem is, I am still in the off-work mode and I am finding it pretty tedious to get back into gear. I hope I am able to become my productive self before the beginning of next week.

I pray that you become tuned to the possibilities out there around you and that you grab with both hands all the opportunities that come your way throughout two thousand and nice!

Happy Holidays and Goodwill to All in 2009

I want to take the opportunity that Christmas and New Year offers to wish all the readers of this blog a fulfilling and joyous season. May your portion be blessed beyond your wildest expectations in the year ahead.

To my fellow bloggers: thanks for your ideas, thoughts and expressions that have challenged, inspired and informed us all for the better. The intellectual stimulation has been worth while. May you all be refreshed and energised for a more fruitful 2009. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a Super-prosperous New Year!

To our beloved Ghana, I say: the best days of Ghana are about to begin big time .
For all of us, Ghanaians, still harbouring doubts about Ghana, let me encourage you to allow hope to reign in your hearts. Let us all learn to cultivate positive thoughts about ourselves as a people and about what lies ahead of our beloved Ghana. It shall be well with Ghana.

To all Family and Friends: let us continue to uphold one another in the days ahead. I sense a tremendous relief in my spirit. I don't know what it implies, but I believe that something extraordinary is around the corner.
Love you all so much. Mwa-mwa-mwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Afenhyiapa!